| GM模型和Markov模型在公路客运量预测中的综合运用 |
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| 引用本文： | 雷晓斌,郭璐.GM模型和Markov模型在公路客运量预测中的综合运用[J].西部交通科技,2013(12):78-83. |
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| 作者姓名： | 雷晓斌 郭璐 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]西安公路研究院,陕西西安710054 [2]长安大学,陕西西安710064 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章在应用灰色理论构建的GM预测模型基础上，以Markov模型为修正方法，建立GM—Markov模型，并以陕西省2003—2012年公路客运量为基础数据对上述理论进行实例验证。结果表明：与实际客运量相比，GM模型的相对误差为11．08％，而GM—Markov模型的相对误差仅为5．61％，GM—Markov模型拟合精度较高，更加贴近实际情况。
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| 关 键 词： | 公路客运量预测 灰色GM（1 1）模型 马尔科夫（Markov）模型 |
The Comprehensive Application of GM Models and Markov Models in Highway Passenger Volume Forecast |
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| LEI Xiao-bin,GUO Lu.The Comprehensive Application of GM Models and Markov Models in Highway Passenger Volume Forecast[J].Western China Communication Science & Technology,2013(12):78-83. |
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| Authors: | LEI Xiao-bin GUO Lu |
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| Institution: | 1. Xi＇an Highway Research Institute,Xi ＇an, Shaanxi, 710054; 2. Chang＇an University, Xi ＇an, Shaanxi, 710064) |
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| Abstract: | Based on GM prediction model built by using the gray theory, with Markov model as the correction method, this article established GM-Markov model, and the above theory was practically verified by using 2003-2012 highway passenger volume in Shaanxi Province as the base data.The results showed that; compared with the actual passenger volume, the relative error of GM models is 11.08% ,while the relative error of GM-Markov model is only 5. 61% ,and GM-Markov model fitting has higher precision, much closer to the actual situa- tion. |
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| Keywords: | Highway passenger volume forecast Gray GM（ 1 1 ）model Markov model |
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