基于LEAP模型的城市客运交通能耗和污染物排放预测

我国交通运输业能源消耗量与污染物排放量日益增多,交通部门的节能减排措施研究迫在眉睫。本论文基于LEAP模型构建了某城市客运交通能耗与污染物排放模型,并预测了基准情景、政策情景、技术情景及综合情景下该城市客运交通2014-2030年之间的能耗及污染物排放情况。研究表明,三种发展情景下该城市能源需求量及污染物排放较基准情景均有减少,其中综合情景效果最佳,综合情景在2030年的能源消耗与CO2排放可分别减少56.98%和54.55%,CO、HC、NOx与PM2.5可分别减排67.39%、67.27%、51.43%与75.38%。因此应大力发展公共交通,尤其是轨道交通,同时限制私家车的无节制发展,并推广节能环保技术以改善终端利用层次能源结构。

The Prediction Research on Passenger Transport energy Consumption and Pollutant Emissions based on the LEAP model

The energy consumption and pollutant emissions of our country's transportation is increasing, and the energy-saving and emission-reduction measures of the traffic department is extremely urgent. Based on the LEAP model, a model of energy consumption and pollutant discharge in a city is constructed, and the energy consumption and pollutant emissions of the city passenger transportation 2014-2030 on the basis of the benchmark scenario, the policy scenario, the technology scenario and the comprehensive scenario are predicted. The research shows that the urban energy consumption and pollutant emissions are reduced by three kinds of development scenarios,and the comprehensive scenario is the best. In 2030,the energy con-sumption and CO2 emissions can be reduced by 56.98%and 54.55%,HC,NOx,CO and PM2.5,respec-tively,which are 67.39%,67.27%,51.43%and 75.38%,respectively. Therefore,we should vigorously develop public transport, especially rail transportation, and restrict the development of private cars, and promote energy conservation and environmental protection technology to improve the use of the terminal lev-el of energy structure.