三峡翻坝运输江南公路交通量预测思路探讨

三峡翻坝运输江南公路是三峡坝区水陆联运的主要公路通道,服务于三峡坝区各种长期、应急或临时性翻坝运输需求,同时也是项目沿线地区内部及对外出行的重要交通线路。因其在区域运输网中的独特地位,其未来服务功能具备典型的多样性特点,交通需求特征迥异于一般公路项目,采用传统的交通量预测方法很难把握其未来交通需求的增长规律和分布特点。在江南公路交通量预测过程中,引入了分类预测法,并创造性地构建了基于出行意向的交通量分担模型、基于土地开发利用的新增交通量预测模型等,在诸多方面都进行了有价值的探索。

Discussion About Thought of Traffic Volume Forecasting of Jiangnan Highway for Transshipment Over Dam in Three Gorges

Jiangnan Highway for the transshipment over dam in Three Gorges is the primary highway channel of through transport by land and water in the dam area of Three Gorges,serves to long-term,emergency and temporary transshipment over dam demands in the dam area of Three Gorges.Simultaneously,the highway also is an important transportation line for interior and external trips of the area along the route.The intending function of the highway will have multiple characteristics and the transportation demand characteristics will be different to the common highway project because of its unique status in the region transportation network.So using traditional traffic volume forecasting method is very difficult to estimate the growth rule and the distributed characteristics of transportation demands.The classified forecasting method is introduced in traffic volume forecasting process of Jiangnan Highway.Then some valuable explorations in many aspects are carried on in the paper,such as traffic mode split model based on stated preference survey,generated traffic forecasting model based on land use.