自适应指数平滑模型预测区域经济研究

三次指数平滑法预测区域经济时，平滑参数为一常量，这与实际不符，容易使预测结果误差偏大，甚至严重失真。本文在深入剖析指数平滑模型缺陷的基础上，对其进行改进，建立了自适应指数平滑模型。实践证明，该模型能够更好地反映区域经济发展的动态特性，提高预测的精度。

Study on Forecasting Regional Economy by Self-adaptive Exponential Smoothing Method

The smoothing parameter is a constant when forecasting regional economy using thriceexponential smoothing, which usually renders the error to be enlarged and even to be distorted, but the assumption of constant is out of accord with the practice. Based on the deep analysis of deficiency of traditional thrice exponential smoothing, this paper establishes self adaptive thrice exponential smoothing model. It is proved that the dynamic characteristic of regional economy can be better reflected and the forecasting precision can be improved further by self adaptive thrice exponential smoothing model