西部地区综合交通一体化与新型城镇化动态协调发展研究

为分析西部地区综合交通一体化与新型城镇化动态协调关系,首先利用多因素灰色关联度模型进行定性分析,结果显示两者长期处于中度协调状态。然后建立VAR模型,利用脉冲响应、方差分解、协整检验定量分析两者之间短期和长期关系及作用方向。结果显示,在短期,综合交通一体化对新型城镇化为正向冲击,作用明显,新型城镇化对综合交通一体化的冲击作用不明显,两者处于动态协调状态,未达最优;在长期,两者存在均衡关系。最后根据分析结果,为推动西部地区综合交通一体化与新型城镇化高质量协调发展提供参考建议。

Research on the Coordinated Development of Integrated Transportation Integration and New Urbanization in the Western Region

In order to analyze the dynamic coordination relationship between integrated transportation integration and new urbanization in the western region,the multi-factor grey correlation model is used for qualitative analysis.The results show that the two are in a moderately coordinated state for a long time.Then the VAR model is established,and the short-term and long-term relationship between the two and the direction of action are analyzed quantitatively by means of the impulse response,variance decomposition,and co-integration test.The results show that in the short-term,integrated transportation integration has a positive impact on new urbanization,and the effect is obvious;the impact of new urbanization on integrated transportation integration is not obvious,the two are in a dynamic coordination state,which is not optimal.In the long run,there is a balanced relationship between the two.Finally,based on the analysis results,it provides reference and suggestions for promoting the high-quality coordinated development of integrated transportation integration and new urbanization in the western region.