最大熵模型在福田枢纽换乘量分布预测中的应用

综合客运枢纽换乘量分布预测是枢纽规划和设计中的重要步骤,预测结果的好坏会直接影响枢纽的整体功能和运行效率的发挥。为此,将＂四阶段法＂中的交通分布预测原理运用于客运枢纽的换乘量分布预测,建立换乘量分布的最大熵模型并设计其算法。模型引入重力式先验概率,隐含考虑随机因素的影响,从宏观上描述出行者的换乘行为,发生概率最大时的换乘量分布即为规划年的换乘量分布。将该模型应用于福田枢纽的换乘量分布预测中,通过基础数据的引入和模型参数的标定,可获得比较满意的规划年换乘量分布数据,并为综合客运枢纽的规划建设提供科学依据。

Application of Maximum Entropy Model in Transfer Volume Distribution Forecast for Futian Hub

Transfer volume distribution forecast for integraged passenger transportation hub is an important step in hub planning and design,and the results of forecast will directly influence integral function and operating efficiency.For this,this paper applies traffic distribution forecast principle in ＂Four-stage Method＂ in transfer volume forecast for passenger transportation hub and establishes the maximum entropy model of transfer volume distribution and design its algorithm.The model introduces gravity prior probability,implying consideration for influences of random factors,and describes transfer behaviours of travelers in macro,the transfer volume distribution at the maximum probability of occurrence is the transfer volume distribution of the planned year.The paper applies this model in transfer volume distribution forecast for Futian hub,the forecast can obtain satisfactory transfer volume distribution data of the planned year via introduction of basic data and calibraiton of model parameters and provide scientific bases for planning and construction of integrated passenger transportation hub.