不同类型氢燃料电池汽车全生命周期经济性分析及预测研究

氢燃料电池汽车被认为是 21世纪具有潜力的新能源清洁动力汽车之一，影响其推广应用的最重要因素是高成本，开展全生命周期经济性分析至关重要。目前国内外学者对氢燃料电池汽车的生命周期成本评价研究主要集中于零部件成本、燃料价格等因素，而考虑国家及地方补贴政策、运维和报废成本以及不同运营里程、不同车型下经济性分析的较少。从用户的角度，通过对购置成本、运营成本、维护成本、回收残值、补能和抗寒影响以及国家和地方补贴等多种因素进行综合分析，建立全生命周期成本模型，针对乘用车、客车和卡车等不同车型，分场景开展经济性成本评价，将其与传统燃油汽车和纯电动汽车的经济性进行对比分析。面向未来，作出经济性预测，并提出一系列对策建议。

Economic Analysis and Prediction of Life-Cycle Costs for Different Types of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been identified as promising clean energy options for the 21st century, yet their widespread adoption is hindered by their high cost. It is crucial to conduct a full life-cycle cost analysis to address this issue. However, the majority of existing research has focused solely on aspects such as component costs and fuel prices, with little consideration given to other factors, including national and local subsidy policies, operation and maintenance costs, scrap value, and economic analysis for different operating mileage and vehicle types. To provide a more comprehensive analysis, this article adopts a user-centric approach and examines various cost factors, such as purchase, operation, maintenance, residual value,energy supplementation, cold resistance, and subsidies. A robust life-cycle cost model is established to evaluate the economic benefits of different vehicle types, including passenger cars, buses, and trucks, across a range of scenarios. Moreover, the economic advantages of these vehicles are compared with those of traditional fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Finally, this article makes economic predictions and puts forward a set of policy recommendations.