基于案例推理的交通基础设施PPP项目再谈判触发点识别研究

为了减少再谈判的发生，降低管理成本，提高效率，提出基于案例推理的再谈判触发点识别模型。首先，运用粗糙集理论对初始案例特征属性进行约简，并综合使用熵权法和层次分析法对各案例特征属性权重进行优化； 然后，通过案例总体相似度检索与拟建PPP项目相似的源案例，识别出拟建项目最有可能发生的再谈判触发点； 最后，以深圳梧桐山隧道PPP项目为例，验证模型的合理性与有效性，同时，提出相应的事前预防措施。

Identification of Renegotiation Trigger Point in Transport Infrastructure PPP Projects Based on CBR

In order to avoid unnecessary potential renegotiations in transport infrastructure PPP project, reduce the management cost and improve the efficiency, the renegotiation trigger point identification model based on case based reasoning (CBR) technology is proposed. Firstly, the rough set theory is used to simplify the initial case feature attributes, and the entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process are used to optimize the feature weights of each case. And then the most likely occurred renegotiation trigger point in the proposed project is identified by general similarity search of the case and source cases similar to PPP project. Finally, the rationality and effectiveness of the model are verified by case study of the PPP project of Shenzhen Wutongshan Tunnel, and corresponding preventive measures are proposed.