中—尼—印跨喜马拉雅铁路通道探讨

中国和印度两国的经济目前正处于高速发展期,双边贸易和人员交流也逐年迅速增加。一方面,虽然两国接壤,但是客运和货运主要依靠航空和海运,难以满足未来运输需求及可持续发展的要求;另一方面,邻国尼泊尔迫切需要1条连通外界的通道,以发展本国经济。本文利用引力模型预测了2050年之前中国与印度的双边贸易额,并根据历年货运量与贸易额的关系、旅客人数及人均GDP的关系及相应分担率,推算了中国—尼泊尔—印度铁路的货运量及客运量,从而分析了修建铁路通道的必要性;根据可能的铁路线路,通过工程类比估计了铁路的建设成本和回报期;最后,分析了铁路建设带来的经济效益、社会效益和环境效益。

Study on Feasibility of China-Nepal-India Railway Crossing Himalayas

China’s economy and India’s economy are developing at high speed and the bilateral trade and personnel interflow between the two countries are also growing at high speed.Although China and India are neighbouring countries,the passenger and freight interflow between the two countries is mainly conducted by airline and sea,which cannot meet the requirements of transportation in the future.Furthermore,Nepal,a neighboring country of both China and India,is in great need of an international railway so as to boost the economy development.In the paper,the bilateral trade between China and India by 2050 is forecast by means of Gravitation Model;The demand of the freight and passenger transport of China-Nepal-India railway is forecast on basis of the relationship between the freight volume and trade volume and the relationship between GDP per capita and passengers,and thus the necessity to build China-Nepal-India railway is analyzed;Furthermore,the construction investment and the payback period of the railway are estimated based on the characteristics of the possible railway alignments and similar railway projects;Finally,the economic,social and environmental significance of the railway is discussed.