| 基于N-K模型的隧道施工事故多风险因素耦合分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 潘红伟,郭德赛,宋战平,徐甜,张玉伟,丁立波.基于N-K模型的隧道施工事故多风险因素耦合分析[J].隧道建设,2022,42(9):1537-1545. |
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| 作者姓名： | 潘红伟 郭德赛 宋战平 徐甜 张玉伟 丁立波 |
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| 作者单位： | （1. 中铁北京工程局集团第一工程有限公司， 陕西 西安 710100； 2. 西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院， 陕西 西安 710055； 3. 西安建筑科技大学 陕西省岩土与地下空间工程重点实验室，
陕西 西安 710055；4. 中国路桥工程有限责任公司，
北京 100011） |
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| 摘 要： | 为解决多风险因素耦合作用对隧道安全施工的影响，在分析2009—2019年国内101次隧道施工事故发生原因的基础上，将影响隧道安全施工的风险因素区分为人为因素、设备因素、环境因素和管理因素4方面; 将风险耦合理论引入隧道施工事故风险分析中，探讨隧道施工事故多风险因素的耦合机制、分类和解耦原理，利用N-K模型构建隧道施工风险耦合模型，揭示隧道施工事故多风险因素间的耦合效应。研究结果表明： 参与耦合作用的风险因素越多，耦合作用形式计算的耦合值越大，则隧道施工风险越大。在3个风险因素参与的耦合过程中，人为-设备-环境因素之间的相互耦合作用造成的隧道施工风险最大；在2个风险因素参与的耦合过程中，设备-环境因素之间的相互耦合作用造成的隧道施工风险最大。基于解耦思想,可以减小隧道施工中各风险因素之间的耦合效应，进而降低隧道施工事故发生的可能性。
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Coupling Analysis to Investigate Multiple Risk Factors
for Tunnel Construction Accidents Based on N K Model |
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| PAN Hongwei,GUO Desai,SONG Zhanping,XU Tian,ZHANG Yuwei,DING Libo.Coupling Analysis to Investigate Multiple Risk Factors
for Tunnel Construction Accidents Based on N K Model[J].Tunnel Construction,2022,42(9):1537-1545. |
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| Authors: | PAN Hongwei GUO Desai SONG Zhanping XU Tian ZHANG Yuwei DING Libo |
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| Institution: | (1.The No.1 Engineering Co.,Ltd. of China Railway
Beijing Engineering Group,Xi′an 710100,Shaanxi,China;2.School of Civil Engineering,Xi′an
University of Architecture and Technology,Xi′an
710055,Shaanxi,China;3.Shaanxi Key Laboratory of
Geotechnical and Underground Space Engineering,Xi′an
University of Architecture and Technology,Xi′an 710055, Shaanxi,China;4.China Road & Bridge Corporation,Beijing 100011,China) |
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| Abstract: | The causes for 101 tunnel construction accidents in
China between 2009 and 2019 are analyzed to resolve the coupling effect of
multiple risk factors on tunnel construction safety. To this end, the risk
factors affecting tunnel construction safety are divided into four aspects:
human, equipment, environmental, and management factors. Subsequently, the risk
coupling theory is introduced into the risk analysis of these tunnel
construction accidents, and then the coupling mechanism, classification, and
decoupling principle of multiple risk factors accounting for tunnel
construction accidents are discussed. Moreover, the N K
model is used to build a tunnel construction risk
coupling model. Based on the N K model, the coupling
effect of tunnel construction accidents among multiple risk factors is
revealed. The results also show that the more risk factors involved in the
coupling effect, the greater the coupling values calculated by the coupling
action form, and the greater the tunnel construction risk. It is observed that
the coupling effect of human equipment environment factors causes the greatest tunnel construction risk in
the coupling process involving the three risk factors. However, in the coupling
process involving only two risk factors, the coupling effect between the
equipment and environmental factors poses the greatest risk to tunnel
construction. Therefore, based on the decoupling idea, it is established that
the coupling effect of various risk factors in tunnel construction can be
reduced, including the possibility of further reducing tunnel construction
accidents. |
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