高原地质及气象环境下公路交通风险致因耦合分析

为了分析高原地区特殊的地质和气象环境对公路交通风险的影响，以2010~2015年云南高原地区发生的6 261起公路交通事故原始数据处理与分析为例，结合云南高原地区公路交通事故分布特征，分析高原地区公路交通风险的内涵及构成要素。通过对高原地质及气象环境下公路交通风险致因耦合的界定并结合公路交通风险指标作用情况，利用N-K模型和改进的耦合度模型构建高原地质及气象环境下公路交通风险致因耦合模型，并分别计算单、双风险因素耦合模型的各构成要素间的耦合度，量化各类耦合的危险程度，最后分析高原地质及气象环境下公路交通风险值与各风险构成要素的关联性机理。研究结果表明：强耦合会使风险造成的后果更为严重，最终造成风险量的急剧增大或耦合突变后变成以新的风险形态在系统内部传导和蔓延；云南高原地质环境构成要素中"急弯"与其他要素的耦合通常表现为强耦合，气象环境构成要素中"雨天"和"雾天"与其他要素耦合度较高，应加强高原地区公路最小转弯半径以及雨天与雾天情况下的行车限速、载重与车距保持等方面的地方规范和标准建设；随着时间推移，双因素耦合形式由2012~2014年的10种强耦合降为2015年的7种，各类耦合度明显减小，表明2015年较之前3年因地质与气象风险要素耦合所导致的公路交通事故危险程度下降。

Analysis of Coupling of Highway Traffic Risks in Geological and Meteorological Environment of Plateau Regions

In order to analyze the influence of special geological and meteorological environment on highway traffic risks in plateau areas, based on the detailed analysis of the data taken from 6 261 road traffic accidents in Yunnan Province from 2010 to 2015, the connotation and the elements of highway traffic risks in plateau areas were analyzed considering distribution characteristics of the traffic accidents. Through the definition of the coupling of highway traffic risks under the geological and meteorological environment of plateau regions and combined with the role of highway traffic risk indexes, the coupling model of highway traffic risks under the geological and meteorological environment of plateau regions was constructed by dint of N-K model and the improved coupling degree model. The coupling degrees of various elements of the coupling model with single risk factor and double risk factors were calculated. The risk levels of various kinds of couplings were quantified. Finally, the correlation mechanism of highway traffic risk values and risk components under the geological and meteorological environment of plateau regions was analyzed. The results show that strong couplings will aggravate the consequences of risks, ultimately causing a sharp increase in risk volume or a new form of risks to conduct and spread in the system after the coupling mutation. "Sharp turns", one of the geological environment elements in Yunnan plateau areas, and the couplings of other elements usually present strong couplings. The coupling degrees of "rain" and "fog", meteorological environment essential elements, with other elements are high. The local codes and standards for the minimum turning radius, the speed limit, the load and the distance between the trucks during rainy and foggy days in the plateau areas should be strengthened. As time goes by, the number of strong couplings declines from 10 to 7 and the coupling degrees show a significant downward trend, which indicates that the degree of accident risks resulting from the coupling of geological and meteorological elements in 2015 is declining compared with the previous three years.