新冠疫情对居民休闲出行影响研究

为了就新冠疫情对疫情结束后居民休闲出行的影响展开调查研究，把握疫情后居民休闲出行偏好的变化，分析休闲出行意愿的影响因素和影响机制，并量化分析各因素的影响，基于计划行为理论和收益-风险分析构建结构方程模型，量化感知风险、感知正效用、出行态度、主观规范、感知行为控制等影响因素与疫情后休闲出行意愿的相互影响机制，并利用单因素方差分析法和独立样本T检验分析不同性别、年龄段、收入水平的居民受影响的差异。研究结果表明：结构方程模型的卡方自由度比（CMIN/DF）为1.902，RMSEA值为0.047，证明模型具有良好的适配性；感知行为控制、态度和感知正效用会直接正向显著地影响人们在疫情后的出行意愿，总效应分别为0.391、0.608、0.296；主观规范则间接正向显著地影响出行意愿，总效应为0.621；对疫情风险的感知可能性会间接负向显著地影响人们的出行意愿，总效应为-0.081；新冠疫情会对居民休闲出行的偏好和特征产生显著的影响；以家庭为单位、以私家车为主要交通工具的自助游将在疫情后成为主要方式，逐步占领旅游市场；疫情对26岁以下的青年人和41~50岁的中年人、工作相对不稳定和低收入群体产生较大影响，这部分人感知到较低的出行效用和较高的阻抗，出行意愿偏低。研究结论将为后疫情时代旅游业的复苏刺激政策提供数据支撑和方向指引。

Research on the Impacts of the COVID-19 on Individual's Leisure Travel

This paper aims to study the impacts of the COVID-19 on individual's leisure travel preference, the influencing factors of leisure travel intention, and the influencing mechanism. A structural equation model based on the theory of planned behavior and benefit-risk analysis was carried out to study the influencing mechanism. The influencing mechanism of individual's perceived risks, perceived benefits, travel attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavior control, and leisure travel intention after the COVID-19 was analyzed. The impacts of individual's genders, age groups, and income levels were also excavated by One-Way ANOVA analysis and independent t-test. The fitting result of the structural equation model was acceptable (CMIN/DF is 1.902<3.000, RMSEA is 0.047<0.080). Results show that the perceived behavior control (0.391), attitude (0.608) and perceived benefits (0.296) have a direct positive effect on leisure travel intention. Subjective norms (0.621) have an indirect positive impact on leisure travel intention. Perceived risks (-0.081) have an indirect negative impact on leisure travel intention. The COVID-19 has a significant impact on individual's leisure travel preferences and characteristics. Road trips with family members will become more popular. The COVID-19 has a greater impact on people whose age is under 26 or between 41-50 years old, whose job is relatively unstable and have low-income. Those people perceive lower travel utility and higher obstacles, and have lower leisure travel intention. The result of this study can provide necessary data support for the recovery of tourism.