考虑多种随机因素的公路工程网络计划技术

对在编制公路工程进度计划时如何考虑气候等随机因素的影响进行了研究，提出了考虑气候等随机因素影响的公路工程动态网络计划方法。该方法将影响公路工程施工的随机因素归纳为2类，分别运用计算机仿真技术和计划评审技术（PERT）建立了各类随机因素对工作持续时间的影响量的计算模型。基于试算法，分别建立了在已知工作开工时间和工作完工时间的前提条件下，工作持续时间的计算模型。运用这些模型在计算机上进行仿真试验，得到一组工作时间参数的样本值，通过对这组样本值的统计分析，得到在随机因素影响下工作持续时间的变化趋势和平均值、项目工期的变化趋势和平均值等参数值，从而为科学地进行进度管理提供依据。

Network Planning Technique for Highway Engineering Considering Influence of Random Factors

How to schedule highway engineering while considering influence of random factors was discussed,then,a new project planning technique considering effect of random factors was presented which classified those random factors and constructed different models to deal with different kinds of random factors using computer simulation technology and program evaluation and review technique(PERT).Two computation models were constructed to compute activity durations under different conditions of knowing activity start time and knowing activity finish time.A group of data of activity time parameters were gotten from execution of these models on computer.By analyzing group of data,appropriate statistics,such as distribution and average of activity duration,distribution and average of project duration,etc were gained which can be used to determine a reasonable and executable schedule considering influence of random factors.