外部交通区划分方法的改进研究

外部交通区的划分是资料收集和需求预测的基础。分析了运输需求预测中常见的外部交通区划分方法，找出了其存在的问题。建立了对外运输需求的概率分布模型，提出了改进的外部交通区划分方法。并基于改进的外部交通区划分，提出了对外运输需求方式分担预测的思路和步骤。最后，结合河南省驻马店市综合客运需求现状对该方法进行了验证。结果表明：改进的外部交通区划分方法能在不进行OD调查的前提下显著降低方式分担预测的误差，有很强的工程应用价值。

Improvement of the Method of the Partition of External Traffic Zone

The partition of external traffic zone is essential to data collection and demand forecast.The normal methods of the partition of external traffic zone were analyzed,and some drawbacks were pointed out.A probability distribution model of external transportation demand was established.The method of the partition of external traffic zone was improved,and the ideas and steps to forecast the mode split were put forward.In the end,the improved method was validated by a case in Zhumadian City of Henan Province.Th...