综合交通枢纽交通方式选择模型研究

立足于离散选择模型和Nest Logit模型的基本理论,针对Nest Logit模型可以考虑不同选择项之间相关性的特点,研究其在综合交通枢纽交通方式选择方面的应用。分析综合交通枢纽内部各种交通方式的特点,建立基于Nest Logit模型的综合交通枢纽交通方式选择模型,确定其效用函数,计算交通方式选择概率,并对模型参数进行标定。在分析中山市居民换乘意愿调查数据的基础上,针对不同距离分别对出行者换乘交通方式选择进行预测,并把预测结果同实际调查结果进行对比分析,验证了模型的适用性。

Traffic-mode Choice Prediction of Comprehensive Transportation Hub Based on Nest Logit Model

On the basis of discrete choice model and Nest Logit model theory,and considering the characteristics between the correlation of different options,this research studies the application of the Nest Logit model on the traffic-mode choice in the comprehensive transportation hub.After the characteristics of various traffic-mode in the comprehensive transportation hub and the Nest Logit model are analyzed,the traffic-mode choice prediction model in the comprehensive transportation hub is established,and its utility function is determined.The probability of traffic-mode choice is calculated,and the model parameters are determined.Finally,based on the analysis of the surveyed data of the passengers＇ wishes in Zhongshan City,the traffic-mode choices are predicted respectively in the light of the different distances.Furthermore,after the forecast results are compared and analyzed with the actual survey results,the applicability of the model is verified.