区域综合货运OD推算方法及信息价值研究

结合区域公路、铁路货运的特点,对可获取的多来源信息进行了分析,并用于基年货运OD矩阵的推算.建立了基于模糊规划理论的多源数据OD推算模型及算法,并通过江苏省综合货运OD推算的实例对多源信息的信息价值进行了分析,用于反馈指导多源信息的进一步收集.结果表明,模糊数学的引入有助于解决多源数据带来的不确定性问题,提高OD推算精度.另一方面,路段流量、子区域OD量,以及集计OD量的数值价值相对较大,而且路段流量当中,高流量数据较随机流量数价值更高.

Regional Comprehensive Freight OD Trip Matrix Calculation and the Value of Information

Firstly,aiming at estimating a regional comprehensive（highway and railway） freight OD trip matrix,the multi-sources information was analyzed based on the features of highway and railway freight transportation in China.Then,an OD estimation model and the algorithm solution based on fuzzy planning theory were presented.A case study in Jiangsu Province was completed to prove the usefulness of fuzzy mathematics in solving the uncertainty problem,which was caused by the introduction of multi-sources information.Besides,different kinds of information were classified into three categories.Based on the factor analysis method,the analysis of the value of information in the case study shows that link volumes,sub regional OD,and partial OD affect the results more significantly,especially the link volumes data.Compared with the random link volumes,high volume data have higher value of information for OD calculation.