基于FTA-改进层次分析评价法的有轨电车道路交叉口运营风险分析

为有效预防和减少城市有轨电车道路交叉口运营事故的发生，以34起经典城市有轨电车安全事故数据为数据集，对有轨电车在道路交叉口运营风险因素进行相关分析。利用历史事故数据分析将运营风险因素分为人员、设备、环境和管理这4类，并构建城市有轨电车运营风险评价指标体系。为了使研究结论具有统一性与可靠性，减少主观因素影响，结合事故树结构重要度与传统层次分析法的优点，提出事故树（FTA）-改进层次分析评价法对各风险因素进行分析。在采用此方法针对有轨电车运营风险因素的分析中，将风险因素对顶上事件的影响程度进行量化，同时优化工作人员对引发有轨电车安全事故风险因素的刻板印象，精准提高其运营的安全性，并根据研究结果提出相关建议。

Analysis on Operational Risk of Tram Road Intersections Based on FTA-improved Hierarchical Analysis Evaluation Method

In order to effectively prevent and reduce the operation accidents at the intersections of urban tram road, taking 34 classic urban tram safety accident data as the data set, the risk factors related to tram operation at road intersections are analyzed. By utilizing the analysis on the historical accident data, the operation risk factors are divided into 4 kinds of personnel, equipment, environment and management. And a risk evaluation system for urban tram operation is built. In order to make the research conclusions uniform and reliable, and reduce the influence of subjective factors, combined with the advantages of accident tree structure importance and traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the accident tree (FTA) -improved hierarchical analysis evaluation method is proposed to analyze each risk factor. The degree of influence of risk factors on the top event is quantized in the analysis of tram operation risk factors by this method. At the same time, the stereotype of staff on the factors causing the safety accident risk of tram is optimized to accurately improve its operation safety. The relative suggestions are put forward according to the research results.