地铁车站端头盾构井深基坑地表沉降分析与预测

为探究乌鲁木齐地区复杂地层深基坑施工对周边环境的影响，依托地铁1号线某盾构井深基坑工程实例，结合工程结构特点、地质条件，在施工过程中选取地表变形实际监测数据，综合分析基坑周边地表变形特性，同时采用灰色Verhulst模型对地表沉降进行预测。研究结果表明:基坑周边地表沉降主要集中在开挖和拆支两个阶段，拆支对地表沉降的影响应引起重视，特别是拆除中板支撑时的地表沉降可能比开挖阶段还要显著，必要时应采取防范措施，避免安全事故的发生；采用灰色Verhulst模型可以预测开挖和拆支两个阶段的地表沉降，且精度较高。

Analysis and Prediction of Surface Settlement around Deep Foundation Pit of Shield Shaft at the End of Metro Station

To explore the influence of deep excavation in complex geological strata in Urumqi area, herein in relation to a deep excavation project of shield shaft on the Metro Line 1, the comprehensive analysis of the surface deformation characteristics around the excavation, which combined with the engineering structural characteristics and formation conditions, the selected real data of surface deformation monitoring was carried out during the construction, simultaneously, the grey Verhulst model was used to predict the surface settlement. The research result shows that the surface settlement around foundation pit occurs intensively in the stages of excavation and support disassembling; the disassembling effect on the settlement should be paid enough attention, especially in the disassembling of middle plate support, the surface settlement may be more remarkable than that in the excavation stage; if necessary, preventive measures shall be taken to avoid accidents; the use of grey Verhulst model may give the prediction of surface settlement in excavation and support disassembling stages with relatively high accuracy.