基于最大熵原理的公共交通需求预测

探讨了基于最大熵原理的公共交通需求预测模型的原理与算法。根据土地利用、人口密度和公交站点覆盖率确定各交通区的公交分担率，得出交通区公交出行量，再应用最大熵原理进行公交出行分布预测。模型引入重力式先验概率，将发生概率最大的公交出行分布视为预测的出行分布，隐含考虑了随机因素的影响，从宏观上描述了出行者的交通行为。最后以安徽省某市公共客运交通专项规划的调查数据进行预测，实例应用显示该模型计算过程简便，能准确标定参数，适用性较强。

The Forecast for Public Transport Demand Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle

The article explains the principle and algorism of the forecast model of public transport demand based on the maximum entropy principle. According to the land use, population density and coverage percentage of the public transport station, the sharing of public transport among traffic zones and their travel demand can be determined. Then, the maximum entropy model can be used to forecast traffic distribution of public transport. The model, introduced with gravity prior probability, describes the behavior of travelers from the point of macroscopic view. Finally, a forecast for the public transport planning in a city of An-hui province is introduced and indicates good applicability with simple computation process and correct parameter calibration.