| 基于多因子关联分析的道路交通事故灰色预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 马艳丽,裴玉龙.基于多因子关联分析的道路交通事故灰色预测模型研究[J].中南公路工程,2007,32(3):147-150,155. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马艳丽 裴玉龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院 黑龙江哈尔滨150090 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于灰关联分析,对道路交通事故的影响因子进行预处理,建立了基于多因子关联分析的道路交通事故GM(1,N)预测模型。对哈尔滨市1994年~2004年的道路交通事故进行实例分析,预测结果表明GM(1,N))模型的预测精度高于GM(1,1)模型及多元线性回归模型。该模型克服了GM(1,1)模型对于波动性较大的非平稳数列预测精度低的缺点,该模型具有简单、有效、预测精度高的特点。GM(1,N)模型是一种动态数据处理方法,且不会出现量化分析与定性分析结果矛盾的现象,能够很好的反映交通事故的未来发展趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 关联分析 交通事故 灰色GM(1 N)模型 事故预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-1205（2007）03-0147-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-21 |
Grey Model Based on Multi-factors for Forecasting Road Accidents |
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| MA Yanli, PEI Yulong.Grey Model Based on Multi-factors for Forecasting Road Accidents[J].Central South Highway Engineering,2007,32(3):147-150,155. |
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| Authors: | MA Yanli PEI Yulong |
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| Institution: | School of Transportation Seience and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150090, China |
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| Abstract: | based on Grey-correlative analysis to deal with the influence factors of the traffic accidents,the Grey model-GM(1,N) for forecasting road accidents is built in this paper.Through analyzing traffic accidents occurred in Harbin from 1994 to 2004,the conclusion indicate that the precision of Grey model-GM(1,N) for forecasting road accidents is better than that of GM(1,1) and the model of multivariate linear regression,the model has the merits of GM(1,1) forecasting which reduce random fluctuation of accident date affecting forecast precision,the model also has the characteristics of simple and effective and high precision.Because GM(1,N) is a method of dynamic,phenomenon of the analysis result contradiction that will not present quantitative analysis and determine the nature.So it can be used for road accidents forecast. |
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| Keywords: | Grey-correlative analysis traffic accidents GM(1 N) road accidents forecast |
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