地铁隧道盾构法施工全过程风险分析

由于地铁隧道盾构法施工工程中勘察、设计、施工等方面存在大量的风险因素,其不确定性、复杂性都增加了风险分析的难度,一般的风险分析方法不能较好地评估地铁隧道盾构法施工工程风险。本文提出了基于模糊综合分析的地铁隧道盾构施工风险评估方法,以初步统计的地铁隧道盾构法工程质量安全事故数据和专家调研数据为基础,首先构建地铁隧道盾构法施工的风险清单,然后采用模糊对数概率和模糊对数损失率的概念对风险事件进行定量分析,再求出风险事件的风险值及风险等级隶属度,最后确定地铁隧道盾构法施工工程的总体和每个风险事件的风险等级,该方法的结果与上海市地铁隧道盾构法施工风险水平现状相一致评,其结果可为下一步风险预防和控制提供科学依据。

Analysis of Risks in Overall Process during the Construction Period of Metro Shield Tunnel Construction

Because a large number of risk factors existed in the reconnaissance,design and construction of metro shield tunneling as well as their uncertainties and the complexities complicate the difficulties of risk analysis,common methods of analyzing risks cannot serve the assessment of metro shield tunnel construction better.The paper puts forward the method to assess metro shield tunnel construction based on the Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation.It,in the basis of initially collected data of quality safety of metro shield tunnel construction and researches conducted by experts,firstly,builds the risk lists of metro shield tunnel construction;secondly,conducts quantitative analysis of risk events with the concept of fuzzy logarithm probability and fuzzy logarithm loss rate;thirdly,seeks value-at-risk of risk events and risk level membership;finally,determines the risk level of each risk event and the overall risk level of metro shield tunnel construction.The result,making use of the method,is consistent with the risk level of Shanghai metro shield tunnel,which provides scientific proof for further risk prevention and control.