基于跟驰模型的交通流混沌转化影响因素的仿真研究

为分析交通流混沌转化机理，利用Matlab软件编制皮埃莱（Bierley）模型来产生仿真交通流时间序列。在一定参数组合情况下，仿真研究了交通流车队中前后车辆的车头间距变化过程。通过分析这种车头间距的变化曲线，可以明显地观察到交通流混沌运动和有序运动之间的转化过程；在此基础上，通过考虑模型参数和仿真参数变化的大量仿真试验，应用最大Lyapunov指数改进算法对仿真交通流混沌转化的影响因素进行了理论分析。该研究结果有助于进一步理解、解释诸多交通流混沌转化现象，并为短时交通流预测和智能交通控制提供理论依据。

Simulation Study on Influence Factors of Transition of Chaos in Traffic Flow Based on Car-following Model

The simulated time series of trafl3c flow is generated based on Bierley car-following model, which is programmed using Matlab in order to analyze the transition mechanism of chaos in traffic flow. The changing processes of headway of the front vehicle and the following vehicle in the traffic flow are simulated under the parameters combinations, the simulation results of changing processes of headway is also analyzed. From the orbit in phase space the transition process between chaos motion and order motion can be seen clearly. The influence factors of the model parameters and the simulation parameters on the transition process from chaos to order motion in traffic flow are discussed by useing an improved algorithm for largest Lyapunov exponent. The results are helpful to understand and interpret the chaos in traffic flow and provide theoretical foundation for the short time traffic flow forecasting and intelligent transport control.