基于最大熵模型的客运枢纽换乘量分布预测研究

针对城市客运交通枢纽换乘量分布预测的问题,引入"四阶段法"中的出行分布预测原理,将枢纽处各种交通方式的客流影响范围近似看作出行分布预测中的交通小区,各交通方式之间的换乘量相应地看作交通小区之间的交通分布量。将重力先验概率式的最大熵模型应用于枢纽换乘量分布预测之中,构建换乘量分布预测的最大熵模型,并以枢纽内部各种交通方式的现状OD换乘量分布为基础,进行模型参数的标定和最大熵模型的求解,隐含考虑随机因素的影响,从宏观上描述换乘者的交通行为。该方法应用于北京市东直门客运交通枢纽的换乘量分布预测之中,效果良好,为进一步进行枢纽的功能布局及换乘组织等研究工作提供依据。

Application of Entropy-maximizing Model in Transfer Distribution Forecast of Urban Public Transportation Terminal

Aimed at the transfer distribution forecast of urban public transportation terminal,the theory of traffic distribution in "Forecast Four-stage Method" was introduced.The service areas of traffic modes are taken as the traffic sections in traffic distribution forecast,accordingly transfer amount between traffic modes are taken as the distribution amount between traffic sections.Applying entropy-maximizing(EM) model,a new EM model which can forecast the transfer distribution in urban public transportation terminal was established.Based on the actuality of origin-destination transfer distribution of different traffic modes,the parameters of EM model were demarcated and the solution of EM model was found out.Considering the effect of random factors impliedly,the established model can macroscopically describe the traveler's transfer action.This study was applied in the transfer distribution forecast for Dongzhimen transportation terminal in Beijing,and received satisfied effect.