GM(1,3)模型在交通系统公路客运量预测中的应用

交通系统公路客运量预测不仅具有模糊性和动态性等特点,而且受多个因素影响。许多交通研究人员只根据客运量一个因素,用GM(1,1)模型预测。文章运用GM(1,N)系统综合预测模型,考虑系统中多个相关因素,并结合GM(1,1)模型,以原始离散的公路客运量、人口和国内生产总值GDP三组数据数列为基础,建立GM(1,3)模型来预测公路客运量。在详细论述了系统综合预测模型GM(1,3)的建立过程后,用后验差检验法对预测结果进行了检验,预测精度较好,表明此模型对公路客运量预测有一定应用价值。

Application of GM (1, 3) in Highway Passenger Capacity Forecast of Transportation System

The forecast of passenger capacity is not only obscure and dynamic in transportation system,but also influenced by several factors.Many researchers adopt GM(1,1) model for the forecast,considering only a single element.The authors consider several relevant factors and use systematic and integrated model GM(1,N) to forecast the passenger capacity.Combined with GM(1,1),GM(1,3) is modeled based on original discrete data sequences of demographic data,GDP data and passenger capacity.After dissertating details of modeling,the paper also examines the results with posterior check,which indicates good precision and the model's value in forecasting passenger capacity.