| 基于GM-GRNN国家高速公路网规模预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 关昌余,裴玉龙.基于GM-GRNN国家高速公路网规模预测研究[J].公路交通科技,2008,25(4):141-146. |
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| 作者姓名： | 关昌余 裴玉龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 哈尔滨工业大学,交通科学与工程学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150090;交通部规划研究院,北京,100028
2. 哈尔滨工业大学,交通科学与工程学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150090 |
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| 基金项目： | 交通部重点资助项目(2001BG-02) |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对国内外公路网规模研究的分析,指出了传统预测方法的不足。针对我国公路网规模预测中样本量少、数据干扰大的特点,首次引入资源承载力和地理特征影响系数概念,在充分考虑各种可量化因素的基础上,提出了GM-GRNN公路网规模预测模型,即是将灰色预测方法和人工神经网络中的广义神经网络相结合的预测方法,充分发挥了GM和GRNN模型的优点,避免了理论误差,检验结果表明,该方法具有较高的精度。最后分析预测出我国国家高速公路网的总体规模。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通工程 国家高速公路网 规模预测 GM-GRNN模型 资源承载力 地理特征影响系数 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0268(2008)04-0141-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年11月21 |
Forecast of the Size of National Expressway Network Based on GM-GRNN Method |
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| GUAN Chang-yu,PEI Yu-long.Forecast of the Size of National Expressway Network Based on GM-GRNN Method[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2008,25(4):141-146. |
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| Authors: | GUAN Chang-yu PEI Yu-long |
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| Abstract: | By analyzing national and international methods of forecasting the size of expressway network,the limitation of traditional methods is found.Aiming at the characteristics of sample absence and untrue data,the resources capacity and the factor of geographic features were introduced,and the GM-GRNN model for forecasting the size of expressway network was presented.It combines the grey method of forecast and the model of generalized genetic neural network.It maximizes the advantages of GM and GRNN,and minimizes the theoretical error.The result indicates the high precision of this method.At last,this method was employed to forecast the size of national expressway network. |
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| Keywords: | traffic engineering national expressway network size forecasting GM-GRNN model resources capacity factor of geographic features |
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