城市客运交通方式分担预测方法研究

影响人们选择交通方式的因素可分为宏观因素和微观因素。宏观因素决定着出行方式的总结构,微观因素则决定着各交通区之间出行的具体选择。基于宏观指导微观、定性分析和定量分析相结合的指导思想,根据城市居民选择出行方式随距离而变化的内在规律,提出了一种实用的、可操作性强的城市客运交通方式分担预测方法。其中,微观预测采用了特定的标定函数来反映各种交通方式分担率随出行距离变化的趋势,并通过对经验系数和拟合系数的调整和计算,使得宏观预测结果与微观预测结果相一致。该预测方法曾在河南濮阳城市交通管理规划和常州城市交通管理规划中两次使用,效果令人满意。

Research on Method of Urban Passenger Traffic Mode Split Forecast

The elements that influence the traffic mode selection can be divided into macroscopic factors and microscopic factors.The macroscopic factors determine the structure of urban passenger traffic mode,the microscopic factors determine the concrete mode selection between traffic zones.Based on the thought of macroscopic factor guiding microscopic factor and the qualitative analysis combined with quantitative analysis,according to the inherent law of the traffic modal split changing with distance,this paper put forward a method of urban passenger traffic modal split which is practical and easy to operation.In the microscopic forecast,special functions were applied to reflect the pattern of traffic mode split,making the microscopic forecast result consistent with macroscopic one through using empirical coefficient and fitting coefficient.This method was applied in urban traffic management planning of Puyang (Henan province) and Changzhou (Jiangsu province),with good effect..