OD矩阵推算技术在高速公路影响区交通需求预测中的应用

为了简化高速公路影响区的交通需求预测工作,从分析我国高速公路的特点入手,引入节点OD矩阵和线路OD矩阵推算技术,对传统四阶段法中的交通生成和分布预测过程进行了修改。重点对新预测过程中的一些关键步骤,如对交通区划进行调整以实现线路OD与区域OD间的关联、运用OD矩阵反推技术推算得到现状OD以及进行交通区划的还原等,进行了详细的阐述,并给出新预测方法的流程图和工程应用实例,最后总结出新方法的应用条件。该方法的应用大大减轻了高速公路交通预测的工作量,对高速公路后评价、高速公路项目工可研究等具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。

Application of OD Matrix Estimation in Traffic Demand Forecasting of Expressway's Influencing Area

In order to reduce the workload of traffic demand forecasting of expressway's influencing area, the technique of OD matrix estimation was adopted considering the characteristics of expressways to modify the process of the traditional"four-stage"method. Some key steps of the new method, such as adjusting the partition of traffic areas to associate line OD matrix and area OD matrix, using OD matrix estimation to get preliminary OD matrix and how to revert the partition, were expatiated in detail. Additionally, the flow chart and an application example of the new method were offered. Finally some preconditions for the application were pointed out. The application of the new method is of great important academic meaning to the study of expressway post-evaluation,project feasibility study and so on.