城市出租车交通分布预测模型

现有交通需求预测方法以居民出行分析为基础,预测得出的出租车交通分布量实质上是载客出租车的交通分布量,因此其预测值比实际值偏小.基于出租车的运行规律,提出了出租车出行概念,将系统中出租车总出行量分解为载客出租车出行量和空驶出租车出行量,并运用Logit概率选择模型,建立了载客出租车出行量与空驶出租车出行量之间的关系,从而得出了总体出租车的交通分布预测方法.该方法既可以模拟城市现状的出租车交通分布状况,也可以对规划年出租车的交通分布进行预测,避免了传统分析方法对空驶出租车交通量的疏漏.

A Forecasting Model of Trip Distribution for Urban Taxis

The traditional traffic demand forecasting models based on the citizen trip characteristics only take into account the trip distribution of occupied taxis,which makes the results much less than the actual ones.A new concept trip of taxi and a new trip distribution model for taxis were presented based on the operation pattern of taxis.Different with the traditional one,the new model disassembled the overall trips of taxis into two parts:the trips of occupied taxis and the trips of vacant taxis,and established a relationship between the two parts using logit model.Therefore,the new model explicitly considers the trips of vacant taxis compared with the traditional one.The new model can simulate the trip distribution of urban taxis both in current conditions and for the future situations.