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| 基于灰色径向基函数网络的区域物流能力组合预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 周泰,叶怀珍,王亚玲.基于灰色径向基函数网络的区域物流能力组合预测[J].公路交通科技,2010,27(1). |
| 作者姓名： | 周泰 叶怀珍 王亚玲 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 成都信息工程学院,管理学院,四川,成都,610225 2. 西南交通大学,物流学院,四川,成都,610031 3. 西南交通大学,软件学院,四川,成都,610031 |
| 摘 要： | 区域物流能力对区域经济的增长有着强劲的推动作用,为准确地预测区域物流能力大小及其变化趋势,将灰色系统理论中的GM预测模型与径向基函数神经网络有效地结合起来,综合了灰色系统贫乏数据建模的优点和神经网络特有的高度非线性映射能力,构建了基于灰色径向基函数网络的非线性组合预测模型。然后,以四川省1997-2005年的物流能力量化值为基础,对2006-2008年的四川省物流能力值进行了短期预测,并分析了预测结果的合理性。研究表明,该组合模型优于任何单一灰色预测模型,能很好地反映区域物流能力的变化规律,在小样本、贫信息的条件下,仍然能得到合理精准的预测结果,具有实用性。 |
| 关 键 词： | 运输经济 区域物流能力 组合预测 灰色系统 径向基函数网络 |
Combined Forecasting of Regional Logistics Capability Based on Grey Radial Basis Function Neural Network |
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| ZHOU Tai,YE Huaizhen,WANG Yaling.Combined Forecasting of Regional Logistics Capability Based on Grey Radial Basis Function Neural Network[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2010,27(1). | |
| Authors: | ZHOU Tai YE Huaizhen WANG Yaling |
| Institution: | 1.School of Management;Chengdu University of Information Technology;Chengdu Sichuan 610225;China;2.School of Logistics;Southwest Jiaotong University;Chengdu Sichuan 610031;3.School of Software;China |
| Abstract: | Regional logistics capability(RLC) is a powerful impetus to the growth of the regional economy.In order to forecast the scale and variation tendency of RLC accurately,by adopting a method of combined forecasting which combines GM of grey system theory with radial basis function(RBF) neural network together effectively and gives full scope to their double-edged advantages that the grey system can construct forecasting model with poor information and neural network is capable of high non-linear mapping unique... |
| Keywords: | transport economics regional logistics capability (RLC) combined forecasting grey system RBF neural network |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |