指数平滑预测方法引起供应链库存波动的传递函数分析

分析不同指数平滑预测模型对供应链库存波动的影响,建立不同指数平滑预测模型的传递函数模型,通过对不同指数平滑预测模型分别在阶跃函数、斜坡函数、二次曲线函数等不同激励函数输入下输出响应的Matlab仿真,说明零阶指数平滑预测模型没有导致供应链库存波动,1阶、2阶指数平滑预测模型将导致供应链库存波动;通过噪声带宽分别衡量不同指数平滑预测模型引起供应链库存波动的程度,并且通过匹配滤波的方法可以减少不同预测模型引起供应链的波动性。

Transfer Function Analysis of Inventory Fluctuating in Supply Chain Induced by Exponential Smoothing Forecasting

By analyzing the effect of inventory fluctuation in supply chain induced by different exponential smoothing forecasting models,and building up transfer function of different exponential smoothing forecasting models,it is demonstrated that constant smoothing forecasting model should not cause supply chain inventory fluctuation,but linear and quadratic exponential smoothing forecasting models may have the effect fluctuation by Matlab simulating different exponential smoothing forecasting mode in response to different excitation function input.The extent of inventory fluctuating induced by different smoothing forecasting model can be measured by noise bandwidth,and the inventory fluctuating can be reduced by matched filtering.