| 双车道等级公路路侧事故预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 高海龙,阚伟生,李长城,庞昌乐.双车道等级公路路侧事故预测模型研究[J].公路交通科技,2007,24(7):127-131. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高海龙 阚伟生 李长城 庞昌乐 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 交通部公路科学研究院,北京,100088
2. 中国农业大学,工学院车辆与交通工程系,北京,100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 交通部西部交通建设科技资助项目(200431823333-06) |
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| 摘 要： | 借鉴国内外事故预测模型(也称安全性能函数SPF)研究领域的最新成果,收集了31条双车道公路(总里程约740 km)的事故、交通量和线形数据,采用了泊松、负二项、零堆积泊松和零堆积负二项四种统计概率分布,从路侧事故数、路侧事故死亡人数、路侧事故受伤人数三方面对路侧事故规律进行了研究,通过弹性分析从量化的角度给出了道路几何条件、交通量水平与构成等指标与路侧安全的关系。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通工程 路侧安全 统计分析和弹性分析 预测模型 事故 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0268（2007）07-0127-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-08-04 |
Roadside Accident Prediction Model for Two-lane Highway |
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| GAO Hai-long,KAN Wei-sheng,LI Chang-cheng,PANG Chang-le.Roadside Accident Prediction Model for Two-lane Highway[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2007,24(7):127-131. |
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| Authors: | GAO Hai-long KAN Wei-sheng LI Chang-cheng PANG Chang-le |
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| Institution: | 1 .Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of Communications, Beijing 100088, China; 2. China Agriculture University Vehicle and Transportation Engineering College, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: | Reviewing literature on roadside accident prediction model,data of road geometry,traffic volume,accidents,roadside features of 31 two-lane highways(total 740 kilometers)are collected to research the roadside accident prediction model applying four kinds of statistical models induding Poisson,negative binomial,zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial.Roadside accident regularity is studied by using variables such as roadside accidant number,dead and injurer number of road accident.It quantified the effects of roadway geometry,the level and constitutes of annual average daily traffic per lane on roadside safety using elasticity analysis. |
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| Keywords: | traffic engineering roadside safety statistical analysis and elasticity analysis prediction model traffic accident |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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