考虑心理潜变量的城市电动自行车用户出行决策行为

为探究电动自行车用户对不同城市电动自行车规范管理政策的行为响应机理，采用问卷调查方法收集用户的社会人口特征、出行特征、心理特征以及在不同政策下的决策，基于心理接受度等潜变量构建了多指标多因素模型, 得出了潜变量的拟合值，将潜变量作为解释变量引入到行为决策模型中，构成了混合选择模型来分析社会人口变量、出行特征变量和心理潜变量对电动自行车用户出行决策的影响。结果表明:①电动自行车用户的心理特征显著影响其出行决策行为，对政策接受度更高的用户会表现出更强的正面行为倾向；②经济因素是导致出行者继续使用超标违规电动自行车或违反政策的主要原因；③提供报废补贴能中和收入对决策的影响，促进低收入家庭购买符合标准的电动自行车；④政策的实施会促进电动自行车交通向小汽车交通的转移。 

Travel Decision-making Behaviors of Urban Electric Bicycle Users Considering Psychological Latent Variables

This paper aims to explore electric bicycle users'behavioral responses to different management policies of electric bicycles issued in 2018.A survey is conducted to collect socio-demographic characteristics, travel habits, psychological characteristics of electric bicycle users, and their decision-making against different policies.A multiple indicators and multiple causes model is constructed considering several latent variables such as policy acceptability to obtain the fitted value of the latent variables.Then a hybrid choice model taking the latent variables as explanatory variables is applied to analyze the impacts of social-demographic related variables, travel habit variables, and psychological latent variables on the travel decision of electric bicycle users.The results show that: ①The psychological characteristics of electric bicycle users significantly affect their travel decision-making, and travelers with higher policy acceptability tend to adopt positive behaviors.②Economic factors prompt the travelers to continue to use illegal electric bicycles or violate the policy.③Subsidies for scraping illegal electric bicycles can neutralize the impact ofeconomic factors on decision-making and can promote low-income families to purchase electric bicycles fitting the standard.④The implementation of the policy will promote the mode switching from electric-bicycle traffic to car traffic.