基于首次超越机制的小规模路网可靠性模型研究

可靠性可用于评价路网性能。传统的路网可靠性指标基于路段可靠性推导而得，因数据获取难度大等诸多缺点导致难以实践应用。分析了传统路网可靠性指标的不足，基于路网行程时间，通过构造合理的单输入单输出路网结构模型，获得表征路网结构的功能函数，并得到一般路网的可靠性模型。在此基础上，基于首次超越机制，在泊松假设的前提下构造了评价路网可靠性的模型。基于Vissim 仿真平台介绍了模型的应用过程，仿真结果与路网运行状态相符。

Reliability of Small-Scale Road Network Based on the Mechanism of First-Time Beyond

Reliability index can be used to evaluate the performance of the road network .Traditional reliability index of road network is derived on the base of link unit ,which is difficult in data acquisition leading to its plight of application . This paper firstly analyzes the deficiencies of the traditional reliability index .Then ,by constructing a reasonable single-input and single-out structure model of road network based on travel time ,it derives a performance function to describe the reliability of road network .Based on the mechanism of First-Time Beyond ,this paper constructs a reliability model under the premise of the Poisson assumption .Finally ,the application of the mode is demonstrated on the Vissim plat-form .