基于 Logistic 回归模型的三线城市道路事故数据分析

根据乌鲁木齐市2006~2010年的交通事故统计资料,分别以城市道路中9类不同的交通事故形态为因变量,从道路设施、道路环境等方面选取了9个因素作为自变量,通过二项logistic模型进行事故形态分析,建立事故形态与9个影响因素间的线性相关模型,对模型参数进行了估计,并对模型的拟合程度、可靠性进行了分析,研究了所有自变量单独/组合等不同情况下对因变量的影响。再通过多项Logistic模型对不同道路条件下,各种形态的事故发生几率进行了预测,并与实际情况进行对比,检验了模型拟合效果。 

Traffic Accident Data Analysis of Third-class Urban Roadways Using Logistic Regression Models

According to the statistical data of Urumqi City from 2006 to 2010 ,nine different crash types of traffic accidents on urban roadways were selected respectively as the dependent variables .Furthermore ,nine factors were select-ed as the independent variables ,in aspects of road facilities and road environment .Based on Binary Logistic Regression model ,this paper established linear correlative models between crash types and nine affecting factors ,evaluated the model parameters ,analyzed the reliability and fitting degree of the model ,and investigated the impact that different independent variables combination have on the dependent variables .The paper also predicted the risk of each crash types under various conditions by using a multi-Logistic model ,and compared the prediction with the actual cases ,and tested the fitting effi-ciency of the model used .