基于Breakdown概率模型的快速路匝道与公交专用道协调控制研究

延误是评价快速路协调控制方案的常用指标,然而由于交通流骤降(Breakdown)现象发生导致的车辆运行速度突变,使得基于延误指标的控制方案评价具有较大的不确定性.因此,引入Breakdown概率作为评价指标,并将其与延误指标进行结合形成综合性评价指标以解决该问题.本文以匝道控制和公交专用道设置作为协调手段设计4个协调控制方案,分别利用改进后的Breakdown概率模型及Integration仿真软件对4个方案进行基于Breakdown概率指标和延误指标的评价,进而结合2种指标形成综合指标对方案进行评价,并对以上3种指标的评价结果进行对比分析.分析结果表明,Breakdown概率指标与延误指标的评价结果具有不一致性,即该指标可对拥堵形成过程中的协调方案进行合理评价,而Breakdown概率指标与综合指标评价结果具有一致性.同时Breakdown概率指标可定量评价协调手段对Breakdown概率的影响,采取匝道控制会使得Breakdown发生概率下降约7%,而设置公交专用道则会使得Breakdown发生概率上升约12%.综合评价指标平衡了Breakdown概率指标与延误指标间的评价结果分歧,能够对控制方案进行综合性的评价. 

Coordinated Control Between Expressway Ramp and Exclusive Bus Lane Based on a Breakdown Probability Model

Traffic delay is often considered as an important indicator for evaluating coordination control schemes of expressways.However,due to Breakdown phenomenon,sudden changes of vehicle speed can happen,which lead to great uncertainties in great uncertainties based on the delay.Therefore,in order to solve this problem,Breakdown probability is introduced as an evaluation indicator,and it is combined with the delay indicator to form a comprehensive evaluation indicator.In this paper,four control schemes are designed based on ramp control and bus lane settings.Based on the improved Breakdown probability model and INTEGRATION simulation software,the proposed four control schemes are evaluated using,Breakdown probability indicator,delay indicator,and the comprehensive evaluation indicator.The results show that the indicator of Breakdown probability is inconsistent with evaluation results of delay indicator,which means this indicator is reasonable to evaluate the coordination schemes during formation processes of congestions.However,the indicator of Breakdown probability is consistent with the results of comprehensive indicators.In addition,the indicator of Breakdown probability can be used to quantitatively evaluate impacts of coordination methods of Breakdown probability.The ramp metering can reduce the Breakdown probability by 7 % while the installation of exclusive bus lanes increases the probability by 12 %.The comprehensive evaluation indicator can balance the differences between the results of Breakdown probability indicator and traffic delay indicator,which can get a comprehensive evaluation of control schemes.