| 融合D-S理论的锅炉人因贝叶斯网络安全性定量分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 初珠立,杨自春,梁洁,彭茂林.融合D-S理论的锅炉人因贝叶斯网络安全性定量分析[J].舰船科学技术,2012,34(9):93-97. |
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| 作者姓名： | 初珠立 杨自春 梁洁 彭茂林 |
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| 作者单位： | 海军工程大学船舶与动力学院,湖北武汉,430033 |
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| 基金项目： | 武器装备预研基金项目(9140A27050109JB1112);总装“十一五”预研基金项目(513270301);教育部优秀人才支持计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对船用锅炉人因安全性分析中存在的知识不确定性,采用D-S证据理论对多专家信息进行融合并建立考虑人因的贝叶斯网络,得到节点条件概率的区间表示形式.经加权平均后代入贝叶斯网络计算,与面向对象贝叶斯网络和FTA等方法的对比显示,该方法能够更加有效地融合不同专家信息,也更为符合工程实际.
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| 关 键 词： | 不确定性 D-S证据理论 人因因素 贝叶斯网络 安全性分析 船用锅炉 |
Security quantitative analysis of ship boiler based on human factor Bayesian networks fusion with D-S theory |
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| CHU Zhu-li
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YANG Zi-chun
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LIANG Jie
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PENG Mao-lin.Security quantitative analysis of ship boiler based on human factor Bayesian networks fusion with D-S theory[J].Ship Science and Technology,2012,34(9):93-97. |
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| Authors: | CHU Zhu-li YANG Zi-chun LIANG Jie PENG Mao-lin |
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| Institution: | (College of Naval Architecture and Power,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China) |
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| Abstract: | Uncertain information is a common problem in ship boiler safety analysis,the D-S evidence theory fused information of different experts well and a Bayesian Network was built considering human factors,and got conditional probability of the nodes in form of interzones.Then input the weighted average information to the BN model.Contrast with object-oriented BN,FTA shows that this method can fuse information from different experts better,the data is more accurate for project. |
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| Keywords: | uncertainty D-S evidence theory human factor Bayesian networks safety analysis marine boiler |
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