火箭炮特定终点效应的概率研究

简要分析了火箭炮在现代战争中的作用，提出了利用新技术后的火箭炮可以实现特定终点效应的观点，并以近似直线终点效应为基本模型；分析了相邻两发弹杀伤区域的重叠条件，进而引入并推导了有效重叠长度的计算公式，结合蒙特卡罗方法对基本模型的有效重叠长度的概率问题进行了理论计算。结果表明，利用火箭炮形成特定的终点效应是可能实现的，算例在零系统误差、7mrad系统误差时形成的近似直线终点效应的概率分别为87．1％和10．3％。因此，提高密集度、系统误差、有效杀伤半径等因素的综合指标，是提高火箭炮特定终点效应概率的关键所在。

Study on the probability of goal effect of rocket system

This paper briefly analyses the effect of rocket system in modern wars, puts forward a new view that special goal effect can be come true by rocket system used new techniques, and takes approximately linear goal effect as basic model, analyses the overlap condition of kill and wound area between two nearest rockets, and moreover, deduces the formulas of the effctive and cross length of it. With the method of Monte Carlo, this paper makes some research to resolve the probability of approximate linear goal effect with example and the results shows that it is possible to form special goal effect using rocket system. The probabilities of one case in this paper are 87.1% and 10.3% , while its system errors are zero and 7mrad separately. So, the key to increase the probability is to increase the integration effect among Ex/Ez, system error, effective kill and wound radius and etc.