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海底输气管道泄漏风险定量分析
引用本文:尹群,刘海燕,李良碧.海底输气管道泄漏风险定量分析[J].江苏科技大学学报(社会科学版),2009,23(3):189-192.
作者姓名:尹群  刘海燕  李良碧
作者单位:江苏科技大学,船舶与海洋工程学院,江苏,镇江,212003  
基金项目:江苏科技大学博士科研启动基金 
摘    要:由于海底管道工作环境的恶劣性,其失效概率较高,一旦发生泄漏事故,后果严重.本文以某一海洋平台周围海底输气管道为背景,运用海洋工程领域风险评估软件NEPTUNE对不同破损情况下天然气泄漏扩散的情况进行了模拟,计算了泄漏气体点燃概率,预测了泄漏天然气爆炸事故的危害半径,其分析结果对海底管道油气泄漏扩散范围的预测及油气点燃概率计算方法的研究具有一定的参考作用.

关 键 词:海底管道  气体泄漏  风险分析

Quantitative risk analysis of gas leak from sub-sea pipe
Yin Qun,Liu Haiyan,Li Liangbi.Quantitative risk analysis of gas leak from sub-sea pipe[J].Journal of Jiangsu University of Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2009,23(3):189-192.
Authors:Yin Qun  Liu Haiyan  Li Liangbi
Institution:School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering;Jiangsu University of Science and Technology;Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212003;China
Abstract:Because of the rough-weather works,the failure probability of the sub-sea pipe is high.In case of the gas and oil leak,the influence is severe.The paper simulated the gas dispersion of sub-sea pipe in different conditions by NEPTUNE software,and proposed a method to calculate the ignition probability.Also,it forecasted the damaged range of vapor explosion.The result is valuable for the study of dispersion of gas from sub-sea pipe and the ignition probability of gas leak.
Keywords:sub-sea pipe  gas leak  risk analysis  
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