| 太平洋航线集装箱货流量GM(1,1)-马尔可夫链预测方法探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 金娇辉,姚震球.太平洋航线集装箱货流量GM(1,1)-马尔可夫链预测方法探讨[J].江苏科技大学学报(社会科学版),2007,21(5):13-15. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金娇辉 姚震球 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏科技大学船舶与海洋工程学院 江苏镇江212003 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用灰色系统理论对太平洋航线集装箱货流量进行定量预测,并结合马尔可夫预测方法对航线运量进行定性分析,达到定量与定性预测相结合的目的,使预测结果更加合理。采用马尔可夫链划分系统的状态,得出状态转移概率矩阵,分析了太平洋航线集装箱货流量的发展变化区间并预测集装箱航运市场的发展前景。
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| 关 键 词： | 太平洋航线 集装箱货流量 灰色系统 马尔可夫链 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-4807(2007)05-0013-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年11月22 |
Prediction of Container Transportation Volume of Transpacific Line with GM (1, 1)-Markov Chain Model |
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| JIN Jiaohui,YAO Zhenqiu.Prediction of Container Transportation Volume of Transpacific Line with GM (1, 1)-Markov Chain Model[J].Journal of Jiangsu University of Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2007,21(5):13-15. |
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| Authors: | JIN Jiaohui YAO Zhenqiu |
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| Abstract: | The grey system theory is used to quantitatively predict the container transport volume of the transpacific line.The Markov prediction method is adopted in the qualitative analysis of the line freight volume.With the combination of the quantitative and qualitative prediction,the prediction results will be more reliable.By using the Markov chain in classifying the system state,the state transition probability matrix can be obtained.Then the container transport district of the transpacific line is analyzed.Finally,the development of the containership market is forecasted. |
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| Keywords: | transpacific line container transport volume grey model Markov chain |
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