船舶溢油事故风险评估方法研究

船舶溢油是最严重的海洋污染之一,对船舶溢油风险进行科学有效的预测和评估,揭示其发生的复杂规律,采取相应的预防及应急措施,使船舶溢油污染降到最低程度,已成为当今世界的一个热点。本文对船舶溢油的几种预测方法进行了实用性和局限性的讨论,从中得出灰色系统理论较适用于溢油数据记载不完备及新建港口的溢油预测,可作为制定有效的船舶溢油事故应急措施的科学依据。

The ships will overflow the oil accident risk assessment method research

The ships overflow the oil are one of most serious marine pollutions, overflows the oil risk to the ships to carry on the science effective forecast and the appraisal, promulgates complex rule which it occurs,adopts the corresponding prevention and the emergency procedures, causes the ships to overflow the oil pollution to fall to the lowest degree,has become now a world hot spot. This article overflowed the oil several forecast method to the ships to carry on the usability and the limited discussion,obtained the grey system theory to be suitable in overflowing the oil data record incomplete and the newly built harbor overflows the oil to forecast, might overflow the oil accident emergency procedures scientific basis as the formulation effective ships.