基于前景理论的船舶避碰决策优化方法

针对船舶避碰决策行为差异,提出一种运用前景理论求取最佳船舶避碰决策方案的优化方法。在分析避碰行为个体差异的基础上,运用前景理论和多指标灰关联决策相结合的方法,构建考虑驾驶员风险态度的船舶避碰方案选择决策优化模型,以船舶碰撞危险度、航程损失和轨迹平稳性作为决策指标,研究在同一会遇场景下驾驶员不同风险态度的最优避碰方案并进行对比分析。研究结果表明:该模型可优化船舶驾驶员在不同风险偏好下的最优避碰方案选择,将前景理论运用到船舶避碰决策优化中是可行且有效的,能为船舶避碰决策和决策拟人化提供支持。

Optimization of Ship Collision Avoidance Decision-Making Based on Prospect Theory

The individual difference of pilots in collision avoidance decision-making is analyzed and the prospect theory combined with grey relation analysis is introduced into the multi-objective optimization of collision avoidance scheme.A model is constructed for optimizing a collision avoidance scheme in terms of the collision risk,the extra sailing distance and the path smoothness.The collision avoidance schemes suggested by the model for same encounter scenarios under the condition of different risk attitudes of pilots are studied,which demonstrates the potentials of the prospect theory in collision avoidance decision-making aids.