| 数值天气产品CP变化率对短时大风的预警 |
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| 引用本文： | 简俊,余民军,石明亮,陈金海.数值天气产品CP变化率对短时大风的预警[J].中国航海,2020(2):25-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 简俊 余民军 石明亮 陈金海 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连海事大学航海学院;集美大学航海学院;集美大学船舶辅助导航技术国家地方联合工程研究中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(41861144014);国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金(41725018);国家自然科学基金(41501490);中央高校基本科研业务费(3132019365)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为实现对伴随小尺度强对流天气的短时大风的预报预警,以2015年"东方之星"轮沉船、2018年青岛港突发强风和2018年泰国"凤凰"轮沉船等3起海事事故为例,寻找中尺度数值天气模式产品中能为类似灾害事件提供预警的因子。事故发生时的对流降水(Conrective Precipitation,CP)变量预报结果变化非常剧烈,与当时发生的短时大风有明显的对应关系,且预警信号随时间提前量变少越来越显著。研究表明:数值天气产品提前24 h的CP变化率是一个有较大潜质的早期预警因子,在此基础上开发系统可准确地预测出短时大风,进而为沿海和内河航运提供更好的安全保障和预警服务。
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| 关 键 词： | 短时大风预警 数值预报 对流降水 “东方之星”轮沉船事件 海事安全 |
Early Warning of Gust According to C P Change Rate from Numerical Weather Products |
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| JIAN Jun,YU Minjun,SHI Mingliang,CHEN Jinhai.Early Warning of Gust According to C P Change Rate from Numerical Weather Products[J].Navigation of China,2020(2):25-30. |
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| Authors: | JIAN Jun YU Minjun SHI Mingliang CHEN Jinhai |
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| Institution: | (Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;aSchool of Navigation,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China;National Local Joint Engineering Research Center for Ship Aided Navigation Technology,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China) |
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| Abstract: | The C P(Conrective Precipitation)change rate provided by meso-scale numerical products is found to be an indication of a gust,the small-scale strong convective weather.The weather conditions during 3 accidents are investigated:the“Oriental Star”shipwreck in 2015,the“Phoenix”shipwreck in 2018 in Thailand,and the sudden strong wind accident in Qingdao Port in 2018.The data of the accidents show that the leading C P variables varied sharply around the time when accidents happened.The closer to the accident time was,the more severely they varied.The agreement indicates that a 24 hour lead early warning of a gust is possible using the information.The gust forecast system can be developed based on this early warning factor(24 hour early C P change rate)for the safety of coastal and inland river shipping. |
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| Keywords: | gust warning numerical prediction convective precipitation “Oriental Star"shipwreck maritime safety |
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