基于模糊证据理论的航道安全性评价

根据证据理论和模糊集理论,分析航道尺度、水文条件、运行强度和航标配置等影响航道安全的重要因素,建立模糊子集引入证据空间,结合专家意见得到模糊集合确定概率分配函数;并通过证据理论函数合成法则,得出航道安全系统的信任度函数.选取川江航槽中引航操作难度最大的航段--柴盘子航段(585.0～588.0 km/左槽)为例进行航道安全性评价,证明该方法在航道安全评估方面具有实用价值,可为航道、海事及船舶驾引人员的决策提供参考.

Channel Safety Assessment Based on Fuzzy Evidence Theory

For assessing safety of a channel,of which the statistic data is incomplete,new method has to be used. Through combining application of D-S Evidential Theory and Fuzzy Theory,important factors for channel safety such as scales of channel,hydrology conditions,working intensity and navigation aids are analyzed. Furthermore,fuzzy subsets in evidence space are established and the probability mass function is also given. The opinion of experts can be described more accurately. Then,a belief function of navigation safety system can be obtained through synthesis of D-S rules. The section Chaipanzi,the narrowest bend and danger channel section in Chuan River,is selected as an example to prove that the method can be used in practice and provide references for Channel Bureau,Maritime Bureau and navigators.