上海港口经济驱动因素和演化过程分析

港口经济系统演化过程遵循着一般产业的生命周期模式。基于港口经济发展的演化模式和动力机制,提出上海港口经济评价指标体系,运用因子分析法并在SPSS的帮助下提取因子,分析1991～2005年上海港口经济的主导驱动因素,得出上海港口经济主要是由腹地经济、国际贸易、港口运作规模以及港口投资和经营能力等因素决定,在此基础上进而计算综合因子得分,考察上海港口经济演化过程。分析结果与1991～2005年间上海港口经济实际运行状况吻合,这说明该经济评价指标和分析方法具有实用性。

Analysis of Driving forces and Evolution Process of Shanghai Port Economy

The evolution process of port economy system is consistent with the life period model of general industries.Based on development mode and evolution mechanism of port economy,the evaluation index system of Shanghai port economy is presented in the paper,factor analysis method is used with the help of software SPSS to extract factors and the main driving forces for Shanghai port economy from 1991 to 2005 are analyzed,and comprehensive factor score is obtained to analyze the developing trace of Shanghai port economy.The calculation results are consistent with actual running situation of Shanghai port economy.It shows that the proposed Shanghai port economy evaluation criteria and analysis method are practical and effective.