| 船舶航行风险形成原因重要度分析与计算 |
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| 引用本文： | 席永涛,方泉根.船舶航行风险形成原因重要度分析与计算[J].中国航海,2007(2):39-43. |
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| 作者姓名： | 席永涛 方泉根 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海海事大学,上海,200135 |
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| 摘 要： | 航运是高风险行业。风险形成原因分析是风险分析和风险评估不可缺少的部分。根据船舶航行的特点和实际情况,在风险分析过程中,就如何进行风险原因分析(尤其是人为因素的分析)进行了新的探索。结合IMOMSC/Cir.953和MEPC/Cir.352两个通函和SHEL模型,总结出风险原因的基本内容。利用AHP方法对风险原因进行了调查和分析,得到了船舶航行风险形成原因的各因素重要度,被证明可以在风险评估中有效应用。
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| 关 键 词： | 水路运输 风险 原因分析 层次分析法 船舶 航行 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-4653（2007）02-0039-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-03-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-03-09 |
Weightiness Analysis and Calculation of Risk Formation Factors in Ship Navigation |
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| XI Yong-tao,FANG Quan-gen.Weightiness Analysis and Calculation of Risk Formation Factors in Ship Navigation[J].Navigation of China,2007(2):39-43. |
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| Authors: | XI Yong-tao FANG Quan-gen |
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| Institution: | Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 200135, China |
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| Abstract: | Shipping is a high risk industry.Analysis of risk formation factors is most important in risk analysis and assessment.According to the characteristics and practice of navigation,in the process of risk analysis,a new research method was developed to carry out risk factor analysis,especially human factor analysis.In this paper,the basic contents of risk factors are summarized,combined by the two circulars of IMO MSC/Cir.953 and MEPC/Cir.352 and SHEL Model.Then,the risk factors are investigated and analyzed by using AHP method and the weightiness of navigation risk-caused factors obtained,and it is proved to be effective in application of risk assessment. |
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| Keywords: | Waterway transportation Risk Factor analysis AHP Ship Navigation |
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