| 灰色系统理论在海上交通事故预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 甘浪雄,张宝刚,郑元洲,彭家敏.灰色系统理论在海上交通事故预测中的应用[J].船海工程,2008,37(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 甘浪雄 张宝刚 郑元洲 彭家敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉理工大学,航运学院,武汉,430063 |
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| 摘 要： | 以某港口2001～2007年海上交通事故统计数据为依据,应用灰色系统预测理论,建立该港口海上交通事故的GM(1,1)模型和UGM(1,1)模型,进行定量计算,结合定性分析,从而预测出该港口2008年海上交通事故的数量,以及2008年各种海上交通事故的比例.
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| 关 键 词： | 海上交通事故 灰色系统理论 GM(1 1)模型 UGM(1 1)模型 |
Application of the Grey Model Theory to Forecast Maritime Traffic Accident |
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| Authors: | GAN Lang-xiong ZHANG Bao-gang ZHENG Yuan-zhou PENG Jia-min |
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| Institution: | GAN Lang-xiong,ZHANG Bao-gang,ZHENG Yuan-zhou,PENG Jia-min (School of Navigation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the statistic datum of maritime traffic accidents at a certain port from 2001 to 2007,the grey system forecast theory was used to establish the GM(1,1) model and UGM(1,1) model of maritime traffic accidents at the port in order to forecast the number and proportion of maritime traffic accidents at the port in 2008 quantitatively and qualitatively.The calculation results are benefited to maritime traffic safety management for the port. |
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| Keywords: | maritime traffic accidents grey system theory GM(1 1) model UGM(1 |
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