| 基于证据理论的舰船论证方案综合评价方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张树军,魏汝祥,谢力.基于证据理论的舰船论证方案综合评价方法[J].船海工程,2006,35(6):74-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张树军 魏汝祥 谢力 |
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| 作者单位： | 海军工程大学装备经济管理系,武汉,430033 |
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| 摘 要： | 建立舰船论证方案综合评价指标体系,针对舰船论证方案综合评价中不确定性指标难以定量化的问题,提出用证据理论处理舰船不确定性问题的主观判断,使不确定性指标得以定量化表示;结合标准化后的确定性指标,借鉴最大期望值决策准则对备选舰船论证方案进行综合评价,通过其在某型舰船研制方案选择中的应用,证实了方法的有效性,从而探索了一种对舰船论证方案进行科学合理的综合评价方法,在舰船研制或改进方案的选择中具有实际应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | D-S理论 舰船论证方案 综合评价 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-7953（2006）06-0074-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-27 |
An approach for comprehensive assessment of warship argumentation project based on evidence theory |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Shu-jun WEI Ru-xiang XIE Li |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Shu-jun WEI Ru-xiang XIE LiDept.of Military Economy Management Naval University of Engineering Wuhan 430033 |
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| Abstract: | The comprehensive evaluation index system of warship is established.Aiming at the uncertain indexes being hard to quantitative in warship comprehensive assessment,the method based on evidence theory is put forward to deal with the subjective judgments of doubt problem,which has the doubt index quantitative.Then,combining the standardized doubtless quantitative indexes,the maximum expectation decision rule is referred for comprehensive assessment of prepared warship.The method is verified in some warship comprehensive estimate in project selection.The method has great value in practical application in the project selection of development and improvement of warship. |
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| Keywords: | D-S theory warship argumentation project comprehensive assessment |
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