舰船方位变化规律的灰预测方法研究

对方位序列进行预测对于潜艇作战具有重要的实际意义。应用灰色系统理论，以GM（1，1）模型，残差修正的GM（1，1），等维灰数递补残差修正GM（1，1）模型对目标序列进行预测，可有效克服目标方位序列的非线性和非稳定性，在信息较少的情况下达到精度较高的回归和预测效果。通过实例计算表明，上述计算可快速提供精度较高的较长时间间隔的目标方位，为潜艇作战提供有利信息。

Application of Grey System in Forecast and Regression of Azimuth of Target

The forecasting of azimuth sequence is very important for submarine.Based on GM(1,1) model,residual GM(1,1) model,and equal-length fill-vacancies residual GM(1,1) model.Using grey system to forecast azimuth sequence,can overcome the non-linear and non-stability of the azimuth sequence,getting the better forecasting result in the case of little information.An example is given to show that,the model can forecast the more precision result in long time,and offering the profitably information for submarine.