| 船舶水上交通相对风险随机性的贝叶斯分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 轩少永,胡甚平,席永涛.船舶水上交通相对风险随机性的贝叶斯分析[J].交通部上海船舶运输科学研究所学报,2009,32(1):71-75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 轩少永 胡甚平 席永涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海海事大学商船学院,上海,200135
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| 基金项目： | 上海高校选拔培养优秀青年教师科研专项基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 船舶水上交通风险的评估一直是业内研究人员十分重视的研究课题。采用贝叶斯概率理论方法，通过贝叶斯统计、估计，结合国内引航及航运单位的船舶事故的实际情况，进行了事故发生频率与后果情况的贝叶斯概率评估。并着重就贝叶斯方法在船舶水上交通风险评估中的随机性特性问题进行了探讨。结论证明贝叶斯评估方法得到的结果具有良好的评估效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 水路运输 船舶 风险评估 随机性 贝叶斯分析 相对风险 |
Bayes Analysis of Relative Risk Randomicity for Ship Pilotage in Harbour |
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| Authors: | XUAN Shao-yong HU Shen-ping XI Yong-tao |
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| Institution: | (Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 200135, China) |
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| Abstract: | Ship traffic risk assessment has been a very important project for a long time. By adopting Bayes probability theory to carry out statistics and estimation and combining with real situations of ship accidents in China, the Bayes probability assess- ment of accident frequency and consequence is performed. Application of Bayes method in evaluation of ship traffic risk randomicity is discussed in detail. Practice proves that the results by Bayes analysis have good effectiveness for assessment. |
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| Keywords: | Waterway transportation ship risk assessment randomicity Bayes analysis relative risk |
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