海船结构的总纵强度可靠性分析

本文在研究船舶结构总纵度强度的外载荷和结构能力的概率模型的基础上,应用结构可靠性原理中的全概率法和改进的一阶二次矩法编制了计算程序。通过对5艘实船的计算,分析了这些船舶的实际安全水平,特别,根据ZC规范要求的最小强度的最大载荷作了可靠性分析,得出了这5艘船的最低安全水平。在改进的一阶二次矩法计算的基础上,给出一种与传统的确定性设计方法形式相似但比其更为精确的安全设计条件及其相应的强度减小因子和载荷放大因子计算方法,供结构直接设计强度校核所用。

An Analysis on Reliability of General Longitudinal Strength of Sea going Ships

Based on the research of the external load of the general longitudinal strength of ship structure and the probability model of structure ability, the authors worked out a calculation programme with the entire probability method of structure reliability principle and the advanced first-order second-moment method. Calculations were performed for 5 ships, the actual safety level of these ships was analysed, and the reliability analysis on the minimum strength and maximum load was especially carried out according to ZC Rules to find out the lowest safety level of these ships. Then a new calculation method came into being, which is similar to the traditional deterministic design but with more accurate safe design conditions as well as relative strength reduction factor and load magnification factor for check of the direct structure strength design.